Congressional Election Predictions

The most accurate prediction of how the House and Senate will shake out during the 2006 Election is produced by the Iowa Electronic Option system. This virtual trading pit allows users to place a certain amount of money, between $.00 and $.99, on the outcome of the election. You can offer up to a dollar to win the right to a dollar, depending on which outcome you have selected. The choices are based on the four potential outcomes of the election:

Republican House, Republican Senate ($.436)
Non-Republican House, Republican Senate ($.330)
Non-Republican House, Non-Republican Senate ($.205)
Republican House, Non-Republican Senate ($.033)

And I have listed how much a person is willing to pay in order to win a dollar based on each outcome. Right now, it is most likely that the Repubs will keep both Houses. The second most likely outcome is the Democrats taking the House but not the Senate.

There have been times when the options trader were paying more to see a Deomcrat Senate/ Republican House outcome, most recently September 11th, but not since then.

These prices probably do not yet reflect the reaction to North Korea's nuclear test.