No One Will Win the Senate

Practically speaking, a party does not "win" the Senate unless it has sixty votes, i.e. enough votes to prevail on a cloture vote, i.e. to end debate on a bill and overcome a filibuster. Let's be real here. The Republicans have not been "winning" in the Senate at any time during Bush's reign because the Republicans have never had sixty votes. Even if the Democrats move to 51 seats in the Senate, they will be far from overcoming Republican truculence in the form of refusing to end debate on a bill. It is really only with respect to amendments that a plain majority (51 votes) is worth anything in the Senate. Even when it comes to judicial appointments, the proponent of the appointee needs sixty votes to end debate/block a filibuster.

My predicition: the Senate will break down 50/50. Yet, every single seat that the Dems pick up will still be extremely significant. Realize this: the Dems have for some time been one or two votes away from passing important amendments, e.g. the Specter amendment requiring habeas corpus in the detainee bill. This amendment needed two more yeas to pass.

Also, note this: if Chafee loses to a Dem in Rhode Island, the Dems don't really pick up a vote.