Overriding the Bush S-CHIP Veto

On Wednesday Oct. 3, President Bush vetoed bipartisan legislation expanding a children's health insurance program known as S-CHIP. Both houses of Congress now have to vote by a 2/3 majority to override the veto in order to enshrine the bill as law. This was Bush's fourth veto as president—the first three being two stem cell bills and one Iraq timetable measure. Congress did not override any of those three prior vetoes.

The Senate has enough votes to get the job done. Sixty-seven senators have already voted in favor of the bill, so no arm twisting in the Senate.

When the House passed the S-CHIP legislation last week, it did so by a 265-159 vote. Accounting for empty seats, and assuming all House members vote on the override, the House would have to offer 289 votes to get to the 2/3 super-majority required for a veto override. That number could drop to, say, 287 if persistently ill House members who have not been voting recently remain absent for the S-Chip re-vote.

Regardless, about 15-20 representatives are going to have to switch their vote on the bill if an override can succeed. Eight democrats (including Dennis Kucinich), generally from rural and/or conservative districts also voted against the bill. One Democrat voted "present."

Supporters of S-CHIP, with support from labor unions and political groups such as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, are planning a media campaign targeted at the markets of those Representatives who are either on the fence or generally vulnerable heading into the 2008 election. Those ads will run this coming weekend and all of next week when Congress is on recess.

Thus, you can expect the House veto override vote to happen sometime during the week of Oct 15. The magic number is somewhere around 288.